This Remarkable Scoring Streak Fuels Aston Villa's Unlikely Title Charge
A mere 60 days ago that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
Per Opta, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with two clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.